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Taleb fooled by randomness6/27/2023 One needs to buy the lottery ticket to actually win. Hard working people show up on time in a white clean shirt with deodorant and have qualities such as persistence, doggedness and perseverance – all the conventional ingredients that contribute to success. But in saying that doesn’t mean that everything is random and success is based on luck alone. Nassim Taleb believes that the world is much more random than we think. Or a talented trader, only to realise that 99.9% of past performance is attributed to chance alone. We often have the mistaken impression that a strategy is an excellent strategy, or an entrepreneur is a person endowed with unique vision. We underestimate the role of randomness in just about everything. If you ask a profitable investor to explain the reasons for success, he will offer some deep and convincing interpretation on the results. If you go to the bookstores, they’re full of biographies of successful men and woman presenting their specific explanation on how they hit their own home runs in life.
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